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By Molly Schwartz, Cross Asset Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Macron spoke at the Davos Summit yesterday decked out in 2009 Louis Vuitton “Pilot Attitude” aviators with blue lenses. While c’est chic, it could also serve as a subtle nod to the five hazardous attitudes of pilots, which can lead to their ultimate demise: anti-authority, impulsivity, invulnerability, macho, and resignation.

If there is a single message to be taken away from yesterday’s headlines, it’s that the age of invulnerability in a world governed by a benevolent superpower has passed. Mark Carney made this very clear, using his time to “indirectly” call out Trump’s recent threats towards Greenland (and threats of tariffs on Europe), telling his peers to “stop invoking the ‘rules-based international order’ as though it still functions as advertised. Call the system what it is: a period where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as a weapon of coercion.” In Carney’s telling, the Old New World Order is dead as the US eschews multilateral norms in favor of an anti-authority stance.

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also chimed in on the state of the world order, proclaiming that “globalization has failed the West,” criticizing what he views as the shortcomings of the World Economic Forum (WEF). “It’s a failed policy,” he argued. “It is what the WEF has stood for, which is export, offshore, far-shore, find the cheapest labor in the world and the world is a better place for it.”

If there were any lingering questions about where the Trump Administration believes the United States fits into this evolving landscape, Lutnick made the answer abundantly clear: “The fact is [globalization] has left America behind. It has left the American workers behind. And what we are here to say is ‘America First’ is a different model, one that we encourage for other countries to consider, which is that our workers come first.”

Japanese 10 year yields shot up 9bp on Tuesday—after a 7.7bp gain on Monday—up to 2.35%, the highest level since 1997. While yields have been grinding higher since Takaichi took office in October, the latest surge can be attributed to her plan to cut the 8% tax on food, leaving skeptics hungry for a credible offset to the projected JPY 5T (USD 31.6b) revenue loss. This has also left JPY as the worst performing G10 currency on the day.

Japan’s Finance Minister, Katayama, has for her part said that she “would like everyone in the market to calm down.” Unfortunately for her, asking nicely for things rarely makes it so—a lesson that the EU is learning the hard way.

When asking nicely fails, rather than sliding into resignation, another option is to fire a bazooka at your opposition. As mentioned by Mike Every in yesterday’s installment, the EU could resort to its so-called “trade bazooka”—or the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) to be more precise. The ACI allows the EU the flexibility to adjust tariffs and restrict exports, or even impede on foreign direct investment. But unlike a normal bazooka, leveraging the ACI requires overcoming self-imposed bureaucratic hurdles.

While Brussels threatens to consider beginning the process of potentially starting conversations to employ the ACI, world leaders took to the stage (or perhaps the red carpet in Macron’s case) to come after Trump’s newly announced tariffs at Davos. If they’ve finally realized how negotiations really work when the other party holds all the cards, their recent spiels wouldn’t suggest as much, putting on a macho front as they face the world. Macron said that Trump was issuing “an endless accumulation of new tariffs that are fundamentally unacceptable,” while Ursula von der Leyen noted that “in politics as in business, a deal is a deal. And when friends shake hands, it must mean something.”

But Europe claims to have another weapon—offloading US Treasuries. Scott Bessent, however, appeared unperturbed by such threats, stating that “it’s been 48 hours, sit back, relax. I am confident that the leaders will not escalate and that this will work out.” While the eagerness to sell America may come across as impulsive, others frame is as a hedge against a weaker USD and deteriorating faith in US institutions. Déjà vu? The question remains, however; if we see mass dumping from European institutions, where do the dollars go?

Whether impulsive or prophetic, American assets did feel some heat yesterday as the S&P 500 closed down 2%. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields bear steepened with pressure concentrated on the long end, as the 10 year jumped more than 15bp since January 14 and reached levels not seen since August 2025.

Authored by Ryan McMaken via Mises Institute,

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (also known as “GSEs”) have released their November reports on their mortgage portfolios and mortgage delinquencies. Both Fannie and Freddie report that serious delinquencies in multifamily are rising to multiyear highs.

For November, seriously delinquent multifamily mortgages (90+ days delinquent) at Fannie Mae rose to 0.75 percent. That’s up from October’s total of 0.71 percent, and it was up from November 2024’s total of 0.60 percent. Fannie’s delinquency rate has risen quickly since December 2022 when the rate was 0.24 percent. Excluding the covid panic, Fannie’s delinquency rate is now the highest since 2010, but remains below the Great-Recession high of 0.80 percent.

Freddie Mac’s delinquency report, on the other hand, shows delinquencies above the Great-Recession peak. During November, Freddie reported multifamily serious delinquency rate was 0.48 percent. That’s unchanged from October 2025, but up from November 2024’s level of 0.41 percent.

Comparing for November of each year, November 2025’s delinquency rate at Fannie exceeds that of November  2011, the previous peak year for delinquencies (ex covid), when November delinquencies reached 0.72 percent. At Freddie, November 2025’s delinquency rate of .48 percent is the highest in decades, and above the previous peak of 0.39 percent. 

This trend likely reflects slowing rent growth and waning demand for rentals as employment stagnates and wage growth slows. CNBC reported on Dec 26:

After years of steep increases, renters are finally seeing sustained price relief, a trend that appears to be carrying into early 2026.

In November, the median asking rent across the 50 largest U.S. metro areas was $1,693, down about 1% from a year earlier and marking the 28th consecutive month of year-over-year declines, according to Realtor.com listings data. Nationally, the median rent fell to $1,367, down 1.1% from a year earlier, according to Apartment List’s data.

November is typically the slowest month for rentals, but rents fell more from October to November this year than they did over the same period last year, according to Apartment List.

With new apartment supply still hitting the market, rents are expected to remain lower into 2026.

“Barring a major economic shock, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the more renter-friendly periods we’ve seen in a decade,” says Michelle Griffith, a luxury real estate broker at Douglas Elliman.

The phrase “renter friendly” is anything but friendly for owners of multifamily rentals. Moreover, landlords must continue to contend with rising prices in services and materials necessary for regular maintenance of multifamily units. In other words, we must consider inflation, so real, inflation-adjusted rent growth is even worse than the nominal declines now reported in a number of metro areas. In Denver metro, for example, the median asking rent in November was down 4.8 percent, year over year. 

On the heels of ‘solid’ labor market data from BLS (lower unemployment), ADP (weekly employment change remaining positive), and a rebound in Small Business Optimism; this morning we get a glimpse of the other side of The Fed’s mandate as the last CPI print for 2025 prints. From what we can tell, President Trump did not drop any hints this time ahead of the release which was expected to be flat from November’s prints.

The headline CPI print rose 0.3% MoM (vs +0.3% MoM exp) driving prices up 2.7% on a YoY basis (vs +2.7% YoY exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Many expected a December pickup due to the unwinding of distortions from data-collection disruptions during the government shutdown, which amplified seasonal discounting in November.

Under the hood, Goods inflation was unch while Services and Food led the price increases…

Source: Bloomberg

Overall shelter inflation continues to slide on a YoY basis:

• December Shelter inflation up 0.4% MoM, translating into 3.2% YoY, down from 3.3% YoY in Nov

• December Rent inflation up 0.3% MoM, translating into 2.9% YoY, down from 3.3% YoY in Nov

The more stable (and most watched) Core CPI was expected to rise from +2.6% YoY to +2.7% YoY but was surprisingly cooler up just 0.2% MoM and steady at +2.6% YoY – the lowest since March 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Core Goods saw deflation on a MoM basis while Services prices accelerated a little…

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed’s ‘old favorite’ inflation signal – SupreCore (Services Ex-Shelter) – slowed once again on a YoY basis, now at its slowest since Sept 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Recreation Services saw a significant jump on a MoM basis while Education Services saw notable deflation MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

And if you want someone to blame for higher prices – it’s your Recreational time…

Source: Bloomberg

…with a record increase in Movie & Sports Admission costs… World Cup & UFC?

Source: Bloomberg

This is clearly a more convincing sign that inflation is on a downward path after November’s shutdown-distorted data.

According to JPM’s Market Intel team, this is the market reaction matrix, and probability:

• Core MoM prints above 0.45%. SPX loses 1.25% – 2.5%: Probability 5.0%

• Core MoM prints between 0.40% – 0.45%. SPX gains 0.25% to loses 75bps: Probability 32.5%

• Core MoM prints between 0.35% – 0.40%. SPX gains 0.25% to 0.75%: Probability 40.0%

• Core MoM prints between 0.30% – 0.35%. SPX gains 1% – 1.5%: Probability 20.0%

• Core MoM prints below 0.30%. SPX gains 1.25% – 1.75%: Probability 2.5%

Finally, for now, we seem to be avoiding a 1970s redux in Fed policy error helping to re-ignite an inflationary rebound…

Source: Bloomberg

…but time will tell.

Via Remix News,

In yet another major blow to the German automobile labor market, Mercedes has announced it will be relocating production of its A-Class from Rastatt, Germany, to Kecskemét, Hungary. While Hungary’s foreign minister is taking a victory lap, Germany’s largest opposition party is sharply crticizing he government as signs grow that Germany’s automobile market is faltering.

Trade Minister Péter Szijjártó has officially confirmed Mercedes move, writes Budapester.

Szijjártó credited the success to “an economic policy based on sound common sense and a stable government that continually attracts new investment projects from global companies in America, Asia, and even Germany.”

However, the news is not being welcomed in Germany, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) pointing out the dire economic situation the country is facing.

“Mercedes-Benz has stood for German engineering excellence and Germany’s economic upswing for decades. Yet, like many other automakers, the company is cutting jobs in Germany and expanding in other countries. As a result, the entire production of the A-Class is being relocated to Hungary. 20,000 employees are expected to lose their jobs as a result,” wrote AfD politician Christian Abel on X.

“This is a direct consequence of Friedrich Merz’s green climate and energy policies. To make Germany an attractive industrial location again, a genuine economic policy turnaround is needed through the termination of the energy transition, the combustion engine ban, the abolition of fleet emission limits, and the elimination of state-mandated reporting requirements. If this is not possible within the EU, Germany must seriously consider a Dexit,” he wrote.

His last comment has proven controversial in the AfD itself, with the mainline position that a Dexit will not be considered. In 2024, it was reported that AfD co-leader Weidel said she ruled out completely the idea that a Dexit, or exit of Germany from the EU, was possible.

Nevertheless, in 2023, the country lost a staggering 120,000 manufacturing jobs, highlighting serious problems.

However, Hungary, already a major manufacturing hub for German automobile producers, is now set to expand. Production of the A-Class is slated to begin at the Kecskemét plant as early as Q2, with production planned to continue until 2028.

“Hungary is demonstrating economic brilliance at a time when all of Europe is suffering from the consequences of the war in Ukraine and the misguided policies of the EU headquarters in Brussels,” Szijjártó wrote on social media.

Mercedes’ decision proves that investors embrace Hungary’s political stability, low taxes, and highly skilled workforce, with the Kecskemét plant its largest production site in Europe; only in China does the group have a larger capacity, notes Budapester.

Mercedes, named “Most Attractive Employer” in 2024, now directly employs more than 5,000 people in Hungary.

In October 2024, the plant celebrated the milestone of 2 million vehicles produced; in the future, the site will be able to manufacture both combustion engine cars and plug-in hybrids and all-electric vehicles.

Mercedes is also setting up its first R&D center in Hungary. With the relocation of A-Class production, the German automaker is now entrusting three models to the Hungarians, as the electric GLB and the new C-Class were already being built in Kecskemét.

Last December, Szijjártó also posted about new jobs in Szeged brought by Germany’s Rheinmetall as well. “Rheinmetall’s new hall has been completed, which means more than 300 new, highly skilled jobs in the city! Such investments contribute to Hungary becoming one of the most important European centers for future technologies, which is why we supported the German company’s 29 billion forint investment with 13 billion forints.”

The plant will produce high-tech components for both civil and defense applications, focusing on electromobility (e-mobility), hydrogen vehicles, and renewable energy power plants, alongside some military electronics. It’s Rheinmetall’s first major site outside Germany that combines civil and defense activities under one roof, creating jobs and positioning Hungary as a hub for future technologies.

Read more here…

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The US economy managed to drastically reduce its trade deficit in October of last year. Data delayed due to the government shutdown highlight structural shifts in the global trade landscape.

Reducing the massive trade deficit has been a primary goal of the US government’s economic agenda under President Donald Trump. This deficit is almost a mirror of the industrial weakness of the US economy in international comparison. It is also a consequence of the US dollar’s role as the global reserve currency. High demand for dollars facilitated imports and encouraged decades of outsourcing American industrial production to other locations.

In the year prior to his 2024 inauguration, the deficit reached a staggering $918 billion – roughly equivalent to China’s trade surplus.

The months-delayed surveys by the US Chamber of Commerce – a result of the prolonged government shutdown last year – now provide an insightful snapshot for October. During that period, the US trade deficit fell from $48.1 billion to just $29.4 billion, while markets had priced in a deficit of nearly $60 billion.

With the data lag now accounted for, several factors become clear.

Restrictive Trade Policy and Reindustrialization

One key driver is the US government’s restrictive trade policy. Tariffs make imports more expensive and have pushed down trade volumes with China, a topic heavily debated politically between Washington and Beijing. In this context, Trump’s trip to the Arab Gulf states is notable, culminating in investment pledges of hundreds of billions of dollars for American industrial production.

Trump is tackling the trade deficit on two fronts. US industry, which recently accounted for only about 10 percent of GDP, is being systematically rebuilt. This is particularly evident in massive investments in artificial intelligence and energy sectors.

At the same time, China, with its heavily subsidized export machine, is forced to pivot to other markets – increasingly putting pressure on the European Union.

The so-called inventory cycle effect is likely reflected in the Chamber of Commerce numbers. Due to US tariff policies, companies pulled imports forward along supply chains to hedge against potential price increases and supply risks. This effect is now reversing, showing up as declining import demand.

LNG Exports and Economic Warning Signals

Another obviously relevant factor is the export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which the US government strategically uses as a geopolitical lever. LNG exports rose 25 percent last year to 116 million tons. Germany, in particular, has been involved in this trade since the halt of cheap Russian gas imports, facing a significantly higher price for US LNG.

Depending on market prices – estimated between $8.5 and $9.5 per MMBtu – the value of US LNG exports is likely well over $50 billion.

Another less-discussed factor potentially affecting the trade balance lies beneath the surface, in the middle- and lower-income brackets in the US. Private households may have curtailed demand due to persistently high prices, which could also influence the trade figures.

However, this effect is expected to moderate given the continued high growth momentum of the US economy. In the last two quarters of the previous year, GDP grew at an annualized rate of roughly 4.5 percent, while domestic energy prices continued to decline. Additionally, as part of the government’s deportation measures, property prices in some regions have reportedly started to ease. The US government recently reported the repatriation of roughly 2.6 million previously illegally residing immigrants. This could dampen rent and housing costs, easing the financial burden on households.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global economic growth of around 3 percent this year – well below the historical trend of 3.5–4 percent. Yet dynamic indicators, such as shipping indices, suggest a tentative recovery in global trade. The reference “Drewry World Container Index (WCI)” has shown early signs of improvement along main routes connecting China, the US, and European ports.

Apparently, companies along global supply chains have adapted to US tariffs and are gradually returning to normal operations.

German Exports Sluggish

Germany’s export sector performed modestly last year. Nominal exports rose 0.6 percent to roughly €1.6 trillion, while volume-adjusted exports lost about 2 percent.

The reasons are well known: the energy crisis and declining competitiveness weigh heavily on industrial core sectors. Structural pressure is most visible in the automotive and machinery industries. Consequently, Germany’s trade surplus with the US shrank by 7.3 percent.

Even sharper declines occurred in China, where German exporters lost around 10 percent of business volume. Meanwhile, Germany’s imports rose 4.4 percent year-on-year, notably driven by Chinese capital goods. This suggests a reversal in knowledge transfer: China is increasingly a technology exporter rather than merely the global “low-cost factory.”

For the full year 2025, pending final monthly data, Germany’s trade surplus is expected at roughly €195 billion – the lowest since 2012, excluding the exceptional Corona lockdown year.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

U.S. economic growth prospects received a fresh boost this week as the Atlanta Federal Reserve nearly doubled its estimate for fourth-quarter output after a raft of strong data, while Fitch Ratings lifted its projections for full-year 2025 and 2026 growth after delayed government releases showed firmer economic momentum.

The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow model lifted its estimate of fourth-quarter real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 5.4 percent on Jan. 8, up from 2.9 percent a day earlier, after incorporating new data on trade, consumer spending, and services activity.

Separately, Fitch said on Jan. 8 that delayed economic releases revealed firmer momentum in the second half of 2025 than previously assumed, prompting upward revisions to its medium-term growth forecasts.

Geiger Capital described the Atlanta Fed’s upgrade as a “massive expansion” largely attributable to the narrowing trade deficit, with new data released on Jan. 8 by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showing that America’s trade gap shrank to its lowest level in 16 years.

“We’re running it hot. Get on board,” Geiger Capital said in a post on X.

Trade Data

The Atlanta Fed upgrade was driven primarily by a sharp improvement in net exports following October trade data released by the BEA.

The U.S. trade deficit narrowed to $29.4 billion, the smallest monthly gap since 2009, as imports fell sharply while exports climbed to a record high. In the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow calculations, the contribution of net exports to fourth-quarter growth swung from a 0.3 percentage-point drag to a nearly 2 percentage-point boost, accounting for most of the headline jump.

Consumer spending also strengthened modestly in the “nowcast” model, which showed real personal consumption expenditures growth rising to about 2.1 percent on Thursday from 1.8 percent a day earlier, while inventories, investment, and government spending were little changed.

The Atlanta Fed also cited recent business survey data showing improving momentum late in the year.

A Jan. 7 report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed U.S. service-sector activity strengthening in December. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 54.4, its highest level of 2025, as new orders, business activity, and employment all rebounded.

The service sector, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of U.S. economic output, saw business activity climb to its strongest level since December 2024, while the employment index returned to expansion territory for the first time in seven months.

Eleven industries out of 16 surveyed by ISM reported growth in December 2025, including retail trade, finance, and transportation.

However, price pressures remained elevated despite some easing, with ISM’s prices index staying above 60 for a thirteenth straight month, a level that signals persistent inflationary forces buffeting the service sector.

Fitch Lifts Outlook

In a separate assessment, Fitch said the U.S. economy performed better than previously estimated once delayed government data were incorporated.

Fitch now estimates that the U.S. GDP grew 2.1 percent in 2025, up from 1.8 percent projected in its December outlook, and raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.0 percent from 1.9 percent.

The agency said third-quarter growth was “considerably stronger than anticipated,” with upside surprises in consumption, government spending, and net trade. While overall private investment was weaker than expected, information technology investment remained robust, rising by 14 percent year-over-year and contributing significantly to output.

Fitch noted that consumer spending has been supported by buoyant equity markets, even as real income growth slowed and households drew down savings. The saving rate fell from 5.1 percent early in 2025 to 4.0 percent by September, suggesting consumers were increasingly dipping into their savings to fund their consumption.

Fitch expects inflation pressures to reemerge in 2026 as delayed tariff pass-through feeds into prices, forecasting consumer inflation of 3.2 percent by the end of 2026. Unemployment is expected to average 4.6 percent, roughly in line with recent readings, as slower job growth is offset by a slowdown in the expansion of the labor force.

The rating agency expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, taking the upper bound of the federal funds rate to 3.25 percent.

Further, the Congressional Budget Office on Jan. 8 released updated economic projections showing steady but moderating growth, with real GDP expected to rise by 2.2 percent in 2026 before easing to an average of 1.8 percent in 2027 and 2028, amid higher tariffs, slower labor force growth, and cooling inflationary pressures.

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. online holiday shopping was a record in 2025, fueled by a strong Cyber Week, according to new data released on Jan. 7 by Adobe.

Consumers spent $257.8 billion from Nov. 1 to Dec. 31, representing a 6.8 percent year-over-year increase and a new record for online shopping.

This beat Adobe’s forecast of $253.4 billion.

Adobe calculates its estimates using direct online transactions and data from more than 1 trillion U.S. retail site visits.

The solid performance was driven by the five-day holiday—Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday—which generated more than $44 billion in overall online transactions. Within this period, Cyber Monday was the biggest e-commerce day of the season, accounting for $14.25 billion of sales.

Cost-conscious consumers were on the hunt for strong discounts, and they found savings, particularly in electronics, toys, apparel, and appliances. Discounts off the listed prices were higher than in the previous year, enabling shoppers to trade up and purchase higher-ticket items.

Three trends were also prevalent across the two-month Christmas shopping season, according to Adobe: mobile shopping; buy now, pay later programs; and use of generative artificial intelligence (AI).

“This 2025 holiday season, consumers embraced generative AI more than ever as a shopping assistant in their purchasing decisions,” Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights, said in a statement to The Epoch Times.

“Competitive discounts and flexible payment options like Buy Now Pay Later also contributed to driving record spend of $257.8 billion throughout this holiday season.”

Mobile shopping reached a new milestone, accounting for more than half (56.4 percent) of online transactions.

Buy now, pay later—a flexible payment method that allows consumers to pay for a purchase at a later date—climbed to an all-time high and contributed $20 billion in online spending. This was up nearly 10 percent from the same time a year ago.

Cyber Monday was the biggest day on record for buy now, pay later schemes, topping $1 billion.

An Adobe survey conducted in November found that consumers planned to use the program for apparel, electronics, furniture, and toys.

Meanwhile, generative AI-powered chat services were a crucial tool for shoppers to locate deals and research products throughout the holidays—and it paid off for retailers.

In total, traffic to retail sites driven by generative AI platforms jumped more than 693 percent year over year. On Cyber Monday alone, AI‑referred visits to U.S. retail websites surged by 670 percent.

“While the base of users remains modest, the uptick shows the value AI can deliver as a shopping assistant,” the report stated.

Consumers relied most heavily on these AI services for appliances, electronics, personal care products, toys, and video games.

Every year, retailers brace for a wave of post-Christmas returns—and 2025 was no different.

While overall holiday season returns were down 1.2 percent from a year ago, they climbed 4.7 percent year over year in the five days following Christmas Day.

In 2024, one out of every eight returns occurred between Dec. 26 and Dec. 31. This year, Adobe reported, it was one out of seven.

Most Wonderful Time of the Year

Overall, it was a terrific year for retailers as U.S. holiday spending rose at a non-inflation-adjusted pace of 4.2 percent, according to the annual Retail Spend Monitor report from Visa Consulting & Analytics.

Comparable to Adobe’s findings, artificial intelligence played a role, says Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa.

“This season also marked a turning point, with artificial intelligence shaping how people discover products, compare prices, and interact with offers. This led to a more informed, more intentional consumer, ensuring they could stretch their discretionary spending,” Wayne said in a news release.

Mastercard, meanwhile, reported that U.S. holiday in-store and online retail sales jumped by almost 4 percent from Nov. 1 to Dec. 21.

The credit card giant noted that consumers shopped early, took advantage of store promotions, and blended brick-and-mortar shopping with the online experience.

The latest OECD Economic Outlook (December 2025) revealed that the global economy has proved resilient last year, even though fragilities remain, with a range of risks including “elevated policy uncertainty and rising barriers to trade”.

According to the organization’s forecasts, global GDP growth is projected to slow down from 3.2 percent in 2025 to 2.9 percent in 2026.

As Tristan Gaudiat shows in the infographic below, among G20 economies (together accounting for around 80 percent of global GDP), some countries are expected to continue growing at a pace well above the average.

You will find more infographics at Statista

India tops the list, with a real GDP growth expected to exceed 6 percent again this year (6.7 in 2025; 6.2 in 2026), driven by robust domestic demand, digital transformation and manufacturing growth.

Indonesia follows at 5.0 percent (rate in 2025 and 2026), leveraging its young workforce and commodity exports.

China, though facing structural slowdowns, remains a key player with 4.4 percent economic growth projected this year (after 5.0 percent in 2025).

Saudi Arabia follows closely at 4.0 percent, buoyed by oil revenues and ambitious economic diversification efforts under the “Vision 2030” national plan.